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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.